Mathematical Modelling and Epidemiological Analysis of COVID-19 Data

by Alessia Melegaro, Raffaella Piccarreta, Filippo Trentini and Adriana Manna in collaboration with Regione Lombardia, Bruno Kessler Foundation and ISS Roma

We provide real time analysis of data, and relevant epidemiological quantities to understand the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the determining factors and to predict the evolution of the epidemic curve. To reach these aims we use statistical analysis and epidemiological modelling techniques which allow to produce real time estimation of the variation in the transmission potential during the different phases of the pandemic.

Publications:

• Guzzetta, Giorgio, et al. "Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020." Eurosurveillance 25.12 (2020): 2000293.
• Poletti, Piero, et al. "Age-specific SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality ratio and associated risk factors, Italy, February to April 2020." Eurosurveillance 25.31 (2020): 2001383.
• Cereda, Diletta, et al. "The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy." (2020).
• Poletti, Piero, et al. "Probability of symptoms and critical disease after SARS-CoV-2 infection." (2020).