COVID CRISIS LAB Seminar Series 2022 — Fall edition
Yamir Moreno, "Data-driven modeling of infectious diseases: what can data tell models and what can models ask data?"
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced an unprecedented response from health authorities worldwide and the World Health Organization. It also elicited a huge effort from the scientific community that rushed to improve and make more accurate existent tools in epidemiological modeling. Research has produced many key results that combine theoretical models with data-driven simulations. Here we show results that correspond to different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to illustrate the trade-off between what models can tell and where data-driven modeling is useful, even if data is incomplete. The models, tailored to mobility and population data from Europe and the U.S., are used to estimate the effectiveness of customary public interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in these locations as well as to calculate herd immunity thresholds of realistic populations and vaccine coverage needed to protect them. Our main findings highlight that a coordinated response system is key for the containment of the spread of pandemics and their possible eradication at the lowest possible cost.
Prof. Yamir Moreno got his PhD in Physics (Summa Cum Laude, 2000) from the University of Zaragoza. He is the Director of the Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI), the head of the Complex Systems and Networks Lab (COSNET) and Professor of Physics at the Department of Theoretical Physics of the Faculty of Sciences, University of Zaragoza. Prof. Moreno is also a Research Director, Principal Scientist and Chair of the Steering Committee of CentAI Institute in Turin, Italy and External Professor of the Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Austria. He received the Complex Systems Society's Senior Scientific Award in 2019 and is a Highly Cited Researcher in the field of Cross-Field 2019 (Web of Science). He was a first-class Fellow of the ISI Foundation (2013) and is an elected Fellow of the American Physical Society (2021) and the Network Science Society (2022). Prof. Moreno was also a Principal Scientist and Area Coordinator at the ISI Foundation in Turin, Italy from 2017 to 2022.
Prof. Moreno was the President of the Network Science Society from 2018 to 2022 and of the President of the Complex Systems Society from 2015 to 2018. His field of research is in the theoretical foundations of complex systems, which he investigates using tools from mathematics, physics and network science. Prof. Moreno's research interests include disease dynamics, diffusion processes, mathematical biology, nonlinear dynamical processes and the structure and dynamics of complex systems.
Prof. Moreno was a Divisional Associate Editor of Physical Review Letters from September 2014 to September 2020, and he is currently Editor of PLoS Computational Biology, the New Journal of Physics, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, and Journal of Complex Networks; an Academic Editor of PLoS ONE, and a member of the Editorial Boards of Scientific Reports, Applied Network Science, and Frontiers in Physics. Prof. Moreno was a member of the Future and Emerging Technology Advisory Group of the EU Research Framework (from 2014-2018) and of the Advisory Board of the WHO Collaborative Center Complexity Sciences for Health Systems (CS4HS), whose headquarter was at the University of British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, in Vancouver, Canada. He is a shareholder of two research-driven companies.
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